Iceland is not a big island, but its strategic importance is huge. Iceland's location between Greenland and the United Kingdom helps NATO control the sea lanes that connect the Arctic Ocean and the Norwegian Sea to the Atlantic Ocean. The defence of Iceland, one of the founding members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, is provided exclusively by allied countries, and the Czech Republic will temporarily take on the protection of Icelandic airspace for the fourth time in May. The Czech Air Force will deploy JAS-39C Gripen supersonic aircraft for the two-month mission, during which the Czech tactical air force will be expected to monitor and, if necessary, respond to aerial security threats.

Iceland, a country of less than 400,000 people, is the only NATO member without its own standing army. Its security strategy is based on its membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and a bilateral defence agreement with the United States. This position may prove particularly vulnerable in the second term of US President Donald Trump, either in the event of the US terminating the bilateral agreement or in the event of a reduction in US commitments to NATO. Both will ultimately weaken Iceland's security as well as the position of European countries in the Arctic and the North Atlantic.

From a geopolitical point of view, Iceland is located in the strategically important 'GIUK gap', which is the line between the islands of Greenland, Iceland and the United Kingdom. During the Cold War, Soviet submarines had to cross this line to reach the Atlantic Ocean from the northern ports. NATO has since used Iceland's Keflavík air base, which is now used to monitor Russian troop movements. Iceland operates an air defence and surveillance system that controls hundreds of square kilometres of airspace and supports NATO air surveillance missions. The island also plays a key role in submarine surveillance in the Arctic, although it relies heavily on US support for this activity.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation has been protecting Icelandic airspace since 2008, following an earlier request from Reykjavik. According to the NATO-Iceland agreement, the allied air forces rotate on the island at approximately two-month intervals, so the deployment lasts about half the time compared to a similar engagement in the Baltics. The Czech mission, the main part of which will consist of members of the 21st Tactical Air Force Base Čáslav, is preparing for the aforementioned allied base Keflavík in May. "The preparation of the task force is almost the same as in our previous missions, the task itself is no different from what we are doing in NATINAMDS [NATO Integrated Air and Missile Defence System] in Čáslav," said Lieutenant Colonel Vladimír Málek. "However, we have the opportunity to operate in an unusual environment and meteorological conditions."

The Czechs protected Icelandic airspace for the first time ever in 2014, with additional missions immediately following in 2015 and 2016, each time using Keflavík Air Base. During each deployment, the Czech Gripens have become part of the NATO Integrated Air and Missile Defence System (NATINAMDS). In addition to protecting airspace, the Czech troops are dedicated to providing security in the North Atlantic, training local personnel and maintaining the local infrastructure.

Iceland's strategic importance is likely to increase as climate change continues. Rising global temperatures are causing the glaciers covering the Arctic Ocean to melt rapidly. This opens up new business opportunities for the exploration of the world's largest untapped hydrocarbon reserves and the development of the so-called 'Northern Sea Route', the shortest sea route linking Europe and Asia. Its development is eagerly awaited by Russia, which controls more than half of the Arctic coastline and most of the region's undiscovered oil reserves fall within its exclusive economic zone. The Arctic is also home to Russia's Northern Fleet and hosts most of the strategic submarines carrying Russian nuclear missiles. These processes are fundamentally changing the geopolitical significance of the Arctic and nearby Iceland.

Before the Russia-Ukraine war, Moscow sought to adhere to international norms in the Arctic and was a member of the Arctic Council, the main forum for regional cooperation. In recent years, however, this interaction has effectively ceased and Russia has stepped up hybrid attacks in the Arctic. If tensions from external conflicts spill over into the region, NATO will have to invest financial resources in ensuring Iceland's security. Otherwise, the island will lose the ability to monitor and deter threats, increasing the risk of an Arctic conflict.

Iceland is more vulnerable today than it was three years ago. The rhetoric of the US government is calling into question the island's defence strategy, as shown by the demands for an increase in the defence budgets of NATO member states. However, instability in the Arctic will also impact other European players, such as Denmark, Norway, and Sweden. Their possible weakening will have a strong impact on overall European security. In the face of these challenges and others, Europe must increase defence spending and invest more in monitoring capabilities in the Arctic. Iceland will necessarily be part of any future Arctic defence strategy for Europe.

"In Iceland... we have a strong connection to the Nordic countries and that is also our strongest identity. We need to strengthen and deepen our ties with the Nordic-Baltic community. We have a common heritage and common values. The war in Ukraine has brought us closer together and this is a positive development," Icelandic Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir told the Paris-based think tank Groupe d'études géopolitiques in an interview. "We also have a historic alliance with the United States and this partnership remains important in terms of trade, bilateral defence agreements and the Keflavik air base. The United States and other allies use this as a host country thanks to our support. I still believe that we should find ways to develop this cooperation with the US. Iceland is in a very special context because we do not have an army and our defence spending is different. However, we play an important role in terms of providing assistance, hosting partner countries and protecting airspace. This will continue in the future."

Kristrún Frostadóttir has been pushing for the reopening of EU accession talks, which were suspended in 2013. She envisages Iceland becoming part of a larger project built on shared values of which its members are proud. "The identity... that Europe needs now is an identity in which Europe does not question itself," the Icelandic prime minister believes. The EU is coming out of a very difficult period, the sovereign debt crisis, Brexit, Ukraine. According to Frostadóttir, Icelanders will support this approach if 'the message of a proud and strong European Union that plays a central role in the world' prevails in the accession campaign.

The deployment to Iceland will certainly bring the Czech troops valuable experience in operations in the harsh conditions of the North Atlantic. Moreover, Prague's contribution to the collective defence of the Alliance's airspace strengthens its own position within NATO. However, the Czech Republic is also demonstrating to Reykjavik the possible courses of action in the event of a shift in U.S. policy. If the White House decides not to defend member states that do not spend enough of their GDP on defence, the Icelanders will have to rethink their long-term defence strategy. In that case, the Czechs and other European nations will take up the torch of defending the island.

The first step could be for European nations to take on greater responsibility for Iceland's defence in NATO exercises. European armies can already conduct military manoeuvres such as Northern Viking, which in the past have usually been led by the US. Denmark and the UK have the opportunity to deepen strategic cooperation with Reykjavik to secure the 'GIUK gap'. This February, the UK announced a new defence agreement with Norway to strengthen European security in the Arctic, and the opportunity to pursue a similar action in Iceland is on the table. Iceland's membership of the European Union is also very likely to contribute to strengthening Iceland's defence, although Icelanders are divided on this issue. The Icelandic Government is preparing to hold a referendum on EU membership in 2027.