Throughout the history of the world, we have witnessed different phases of power distribution. After the period of the formation of the Westphalian states and the concert of powers in the past two centuries, after the bipolar world characterised by the rivalry between the US and the USSR in the second half of the last century, and after the unipolar period dominated by the United States after the end of the Cold War in the early 21st century, we are now entering the era of a multipolar world. This article focuses on the emerging multipolar order, its causes, consequences, and possibilities for future global stability and security.

A multipolar world

What is a multipolar world? A multipolar world is a system of international relations in which there are several key powers/powers (poles) that compete and cooperate with each other. These poles can be states or other actors (international organisations and global technology corporations) that fundamentally influence global politics, economics and security.

During the Cold War, the world was dominated by a bipolar system where the US and the USSR competed for influence in the political, economic and military spheres. This balance of fear was based on the doctrine of mutual destruction. After the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the world became unipolar for several years, with the United States as the sole global superpower. This status was manifested by its military power, economic dominance, and cultural influence. In the last 15 years, however, unipolar dominance has begun to wane and the world has increasingly transformed into a multipolar one.

The following key factors have led to the emerging multipolarity:

• China's rise: China's economic and military expansion is fundamentally changing the balance of power.
• Russia's role: Russia is trying to reassert its global influence, especially in the energy and security sectors.
• Economic fragmentation: the growth of regional alliances and the drive for independence from Western institutions.
• Technological revolution: Digitisation and technological competition, especially in artificial intelligence and cyber security.

The main players in the multipolar world so far are:

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• USA - Despite the loss of absolute dominance, the USA remains a key global player with the world's largest military force, economic dominance in the technology sector and cultural influence through media and education.
• China - China is a key actor in a multipolar world. Economically, it is the world's largest producer and has a leading role in global trade. The New Silk Road project is also significant. The Belt and Road Initiative is strengthening China's influence in Asia, Africa and Europe. China is also strong technologically. It is investing in artificial intelligence and quantum technologies.
• European Union - Europe plays the role of a 'soft power' thanks to its values such as democracy and human rights and its strong economy. The EU's main challenge is to achieve unity in foreign policy.
• Russia - Russia seeks to regain its global influence. It uses control of oil and gas reserves as one of its tools of influence. It also has geopolitical ambitions, as demonstrated by its involvement in conflicts in Syria, Ukraine and other regions. As part of its military modernisation, Russia is investing in nuclear weapons and a conventional arsenal.
• Regional powers - India: It has a strong economy and its strategic location puts it in a key position in Asia. Brazil: It is a major player in South America and an advocate for developing countries. African countries: Nigeria, South Africa and others are strengthening their influence due to their growing populations and natural resources.

Here, however, it is necessary to note that the reconfiguration of the global environment into a multipolar environment is still in progress and its resulting topology (2D, 3D) may take different forms depending on the current status of its poles (superpower, great power, state), which will be determined mainly by the achieved strategic and operational autonomy, real security potential and coalition potential, and their relations.

The main advantages of a multipolar world order include the creation of more space for the creation of global stability as a result of greater diversification of relations. The main disadvantage of a multipolar world order is the existence of a transitional conflict period of defragmentation of the old system of international relations and the subsequent generation of this new order. Only after overcoming this transitional period will the creation of new rules and institutions within the system of international relations make sense. The question is whether this will happen through an evolutionary or revolutionary process and how long the transition period will actually last.

The multipolar world represents a new era of international relations that brings both opportunities and challenges for each state, and will be determined by their practical autonomy and their capacity for practical adaptation. But the key question will always be whether the superpowers and the great powers in particular can agree to cooperate in critical areas, or whether their rivalry will lead to a more destabilised world. Indeed, the future of multipolarity depends on the ability of actors to strike a balance between competition and cooperation that will be key to ensuring global stability and prosperity. Smaller countries can benefit from multipolarity by balancing great powers and strengthening regional alliances.

Multipolar security

Today, states ensure their security by building their own security capabilities and participating in collective security and defence systems. Of particular importance to each state is the ability to provide adequate deterrence and the ability to project adequate power to resolve potential conflicts.

Currently, it has the greatest impact on the global security environment:

• Conflict between national and international strategic and security interests of states
• The declining universality and value of security guarantees provided
• Dysfunctional security institutions and their crisis management mechanisms

In a multipolar world, a security environment is emerging in which there is no dominant superpower and where global and regional security challenges (security threats are not only military, but also include cyber-attacks, climate change, terrorism and pandemics) are addressed through cooperation and competition, especially between a few major security actors (superpowers and great powers). States ensure their security in an environment of bilateral or multilateral security guarantees created primarily by superpowers and great powers.

Basic characteristics of multipolar security:

• Multiple power centers - The world is not dominated by one hegemon (as in a unipolar system) or two rival blocs (bipolarity), but by multiple states or entities of comparable strength.
• Balance of power - States try to maintain a balance of power so that no one state or alliance gains undue influence that could threaten others. This may include the formation of alliances, military modernization, or political-economic measures.
• Cooperation and Rivalry - A multipolar system encourages both cooperation and rivalry as states seek allies and balance threats from other powers.
• Ambiguity and uncertainty - In a multipolar system, it can be difficult to predict who is a threat and who is an ally. Alliances change frequently (so-called "balancing" and "bandwagoning").
• Risk of conflict - More players increases the possibility of misunderstanding, conflict or misjudgement, which can lead to wars (e.g. World War I was a result of multipolar tensions).
• Unstable alliances - Unlike bipolarity (Cold War), multipolarity is less stable due to the dynamics of alliances and changing power relations.
• Complex security management - Requires constant negotiation, diplomatic skills, and a balance of interests among different players.

In the context of the ongoing transformation to a multipolar environment, the influence of the above factors on the practical provision of security is becoming even more pronounced, and confidence in the international order and its ability to provide adequate universal security for all is declining. This security inequality and its elimination will be a major challenge for the multipolar world in the 21st century. We will have to introduce new systems of security decision-making, modify the rules of VETA decision-making, introduce more effective systems of international sanctions, etc.

Further inequality is growing in another strategic factor that is increasingly influencing the provision of security - that of ever faster technological progress. The implementation of new technologies in various fields in the areas of security and defence (artificial intelligence, automation, quantum technologies, supersonic technologies, biotechnologies, etc.) is increasing the effectiveness of weapons at an unprecedented rate, and is already forcing us to seek answers to various ethical and legal questions. The resolution of the various regulatory dilemmas in the use of new technologies for security and defence will force us to create new rules and enforcement systems - these rules must be universal and must be guaranteed, above all, by the main actors in the multipolar security community. However, this is hardly conceivable without equal strategic communication between states.

Multipolar security is a complex and dynamic environment that requires flexible and innovative approaches. While multipolarity brings risks such as increased rivalry between powers, it also offers opportunities for greater cooperation at the regional and global levels. Future stability depends on the ability of states and organisations to effectively address new threats and adapt to a changing environment. A multipolar world can be either a chaotic battlefield or an arena for collective security - the choice will depend on the strategic choices of today's leaders.